Public sentiment towards Taiwan's civil defense initiatives is divided. While there is a strong sense of patriotism and support for readiness against potential conflict, significant skepticism exists regarding the effectiveness of training programs, especially airsoft training. Many commenters express deep concern over Taiwan's military preparedness, the reality of needing civilian readiness, and doubts about the effectiveness of current strategies against a potential Chinese invasion.

Taiwanese Government

Chinese Government

Hey I'm german and looking for a sub or website which explains how to build longer lasting shelters/houses with natural, local materials.

When i watch YouTube videos I don't know which shelters are usefull and which will fall apart the next rain.

Neon-Brain

Incredible article, thanks. But from what I have been reading for years, even Taiwanese military isn’t ready for war, let alone the general public.

Hell the war in Ukraine seems to have little effect on them. It’s like the possibility of an invasion is still as far fetched as unicorns dropping from the sky.

Ironically enough, it’s until Trump won the election this year that people start to worry.

ImperiumRome

Americans hope that Taiwanese citizens are prepared to fight to the last person, but the challenge is that Taiwanese people are unwilling.  LOL

QINTG

I think this article makes a few good observations but there is something genuinely off about one point that is colored with hindsight and recency bias.

&gt; Ukraine’s civil society was well-prepared

That’s actually not true. Putting aside Rand, Valdai Club and Rusi constantly asking questions about Ukraine’s preparedness, or the lack thereof after Crimea and before the full scale invasion, Ukrainian analysts and journalists were the ones constantly ringing the alarm bells that the country wasn’t taking Russia seriously. There are literally thousands of articles in the intervening years where little was done to pass reforms to prepare the country and the nation was shocked when tanks started rolling across the Belarusian borders on February 24th. Society, political leadership and the military had all convinced themselves that an invasion wouldn’t happen. Putin and Russian intelligence also believed the Ukrainians would lay down their arms and they had completely penetrated Ukrainian intelligence, local and national leadership to engineer a collapse. I think people like Michael Kofman would find it almost farcical to suggest that Ukraine was prepared for a war with Russia.

swimmingupclose

teeny bag skirt lunchroom quicksand toy chase elastic zephyr alleged

 *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev/home)*

[deleted]

This is an article published on August 4 by a Ukrainian scholar, at a time when there was no news yet that Putin and Trump would meet in Alaska.

Lianzuoshou

&gt; Civilian-facing exercises may look impressive, but they remain isolated and symbolic. Watching blank rounds fired in a train station doesn’t prepare civilians to act. Unless these gestures evolve into a national civic mobilization strategy, the island remains vulnerable.

That's a feature, not a bug. Ignoring the nitty-gritty details of mobilization lets the public pretend that they could survive a high-intensity conflict. But there is no scenario, win or lose, that allows Taiwan to survive in its current form. The incoming fires alone would make Ukraine look like paradise, and that's before you get to the whole mass starvation part. The math is as simple as it is brutal.

Naturally, confronting that reality and making serious preparations is political suicide. Just look at the new Zero Day series, which overwhelmingly focuses on domestic political infighting instead of, yknow, kinetic war.

teethgrindingaches

For all of their posturing, the DPP stills secretly favours a diplomatic solution to the issue. They'll have to fight off the KMT and TPP (Taiwan People's Party) which are slowly regaining influence and likely be more competitive in future elections. Lai Chingte this time was elected with only around 40% of the votes, and some of his domestic polices haven't gone the best, especially in regards to disaster relief after the Typhoon. The Chinese government knows this and as long as this curve remains steady, there likely wouldn't be imminent military action taken, almost certainly not the "2027" timeline being repeated around.

Remember, Xi Jinping set 2049 as the due date for national rejuvenation to be achieved. Unless the US intervenes in the election process or the DPP crosses the red line and declares independence, China is much happier to let things develop and wait it out for the time being.

cft4201

Like others have stated, this is an exceptional article, one which critiques, and I dare say deconstructs, the now pastiche Taiwan=Ukraine-China=Russia rhetoric. The author does well in moving their focus beyond the commonplace journalistic trappings of the material (i.e., TSMC) and ideological towards arguably the most imporant and fundamental factor of all conflicts: societies and the human beings that comprise it.   

Especially poignant is the observation that Ukraine's \*civil society\* was prepared for war: Euromaidan made the threat of Russia credible and immediately apparent; the subsequent annexation of Crimea and the Donbas reified said threat; 2022 made it existential. Ukranian civil society has been wholeheartedly preparing for and expecting an imminent full-scale invasion for nearly a decade (more if you include pre-existing tensions). Ukranian society does not, and did not, need "performative" reminders of a looming threat in the form of highly visible urban combat exercises. Little Green Men annexing Crimea, Bakhmut becoming Passchendale, Kh-55s and Gerans hitting apartment blocks made conflict a central tenant of Ukranian social life and subjectivities.

I do not wish to regurgitate and paraphrase the article, but Taiwan's efforts at civil defence really are more symbolic than practical. The "exercises" (Military Parade with Warfighting (TM) Characteristics might be more apt) are enacted in accordance with an "aesthetics" of readiness and military competence, intended to impress and reassure as opposed to realistic preparations for a full-on PRC invasion. Urban warfare is, to put it lightly, pretty fucking horrific, and any competent military will actively avoid urban engagments when possible. Rather than arming every able body with a rifle and a LAW, what Taiwan needs is a motivated populace \*in conjunction with\* a credible military and a decentralised yet capable A2AD network with the goal of complicating PLA planning by disrupting PLA fires effectiveness; delaying PLA landing efforts; and attriting PLA air and naval assets. Equipment and capability for this purpose already exists (looking at you Sky Bow III, Hsiung Feng III, and those EO/IR loitering munitions), yet the ROC armed forces appears to be preparing for a fantasy war fought against a PLA of the Cultural Revolution. Taiwanese civilians, like all civilians of sound mind, do not want war. Yet both they and their government must accept and adapt to the potential realities of "forceful reunification", a future I hope will never happen.

OneChildPolicy

Mal-De-Terre

*From Bloomberg News*  
  
On a scorching Sunday morning in central Taiwan, traffic noise outside a motorcycle repair shop blends with the buzz of industrial fans. It’s just an ordinary garage, but upstairs a dozen people clad in helmets, bulletproof vests and goggles stand quietly in formation, airsoft rifles in hand.  
  
They’re not soldiers, but civil defense volunteers learning how to neutralize an enemy in close-quarter combat. Participants move swiftly from room to room in the makeshift training center, occasionally exchanging fire with plastic pellets as they advance.  
  
Such scenes were once limited to niche groups of survival game enthusiasts. But facing the persistent threat of Chinese invasion, a growing number of civilians in Taiwan are signing up for urban warfare courses under a broader government push to improve civil resilience.  
  
[Tap the link to read how, faced with the persistent threat of attack, civil defense volunteers are training for combat with replica rifles that fire plastic pellets.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-31/china-invasion-fear-has-taiwan-defense-volunteers-training-with-airsoft-guns)

bloomberg

What is actual the likelihood of a PRC invasion of Taiwan in the near future? I've seen rumours of a buildup recently but is this just more regular posturing or an actual threat? I don't trust some of the outlets I've seen it from like China Uncensored (they can be very hyperbolic at times).

armouredxerxes

The problem with training in airsoft equipments is that you don’t really feel the weight and destructive power of modern small arms.  Taiwan should give them actual small arms (disable them if you want so at least people can feel the weight) for training.

halfchemhalfbio

I would say 99% likelihood, just a matte of when.  The good news is the models and wargames run on the subject show it being brutally painful for China and not actually working out.

84FSP

This is mostly posturing to intimidate China's rivals and to boost their military/industrial complex. China and Taiwan have thousands of joint venture businesses together and very close ties between families. This would be like the US turning Florida into rubble because of a political fight.  Japan is terrified this fight will break out so there is a real risk they would also step in to stop the advance of China. That is too much risk for China to tolerate.

Faroutman1234

quiksilver10152

If america could destroy the iraqi army through a shock and awe campaign I don't see the need for an amphibious invasion to fight a land war in Taiwan. In my mind, the easiest way to force a taiwanese capitulation is through a massive and incessant bombing campaign for weeks and months on end.  The goal is to completely destroy taiwanese military/governmental facilities and critical infrastructure. Put up a concurrent naval blockade to stop critical supplies and I doubt the taiwanese government can keep things going for too long.

Tomasulu

The question you have to ask yourself is why is Bloomberg running stories on fringe Taiwanese gun nuts? Because America wants to go to war with China, and its media is constantly running warmongering stories to soften up the public to accept a war America is going to start. You've seen it happen with Iraq, and every other invasion and bombing, the playbook is always the same:


X is evil, we are the good guys, x is going to start a war, so we have to stop them before they start a war, by starting a war. 

sepata

Your obsession with Taiwan is laughable. Who's the elephant in the room who poses a military threat to China? Hint: it's not Taiwan

Available-Visit5775

China has no good reason to militarily invade Taiwan and will likely never need to do so. 

All of this fear mongering about it is to boost the MIC in Taiwan and the US. 

All that China has to do is wait out the continued deterioration of the US and eventually Taiwan will realize that the Chinese economic model is the better road for its people.

The Chinese government thinks in decades and centuries, the US elite only thinks in terms of electoral cycles and quarterly reports.

randy_tutelage69

**NOTICE: See below for a copy of the original post by bloomberg in case it is edited or deleted.**



*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/China) if you have any questions or concerns.*

AutoModerator

Yea this is pointless Taiwan is toast. Any smart person or AI would tell you this. And no, America isn’t going to save you.

maincoonpower

the problem with these organizations is that some of them may be internal PLA sleeper cells...

if there are willing people why not just set up a national guard or something like that? with proper security vetting etc.

tentacle_

It's not likely to ever happen. 
What chinese people love, in ranked order:

1: Money
2-98 : Hmmm
99: their first born (if its a son)
100: Mother China.

With the prospect of loosing both money and their only son, in case of war, CCP will soon enough have a rebellion on hand if they go to war.....

Sweaty-Operation579

Taiwan has launched initiatives to prepare its citizens for potential crises amid escalating tensions with China.

Taiwan Civil Defense Preparedness

Why This Matters

Public Sentiment Summary

Highlighted Comments

Parties Involved

What the people want